Bitcoin bear markets are brutal, often 70–85% drawdowns that last 12–18 months. A persistent myth in crypto circles claims that when Bitcoin crashes, investors rotate into gold and drive its price higher. Is that actually true?
This analysis examines every major Bitcoin bear market since 2014 and measures what happened to the gold price (XAU/USD) during the exact same periods.
Methodology
- Bitcoin bear market defined as: peak-to-trough decline ≥70% (the standard definition used by Glassnode, Woo, and PlanB).
- Gold performance measured from the exact Bitcoin peak date to Bitcoin trough date.
- Returns calculated in USD (not BTC terms).
- Data sources: CoinGecko, TradingView, LBMA gold fix.
The Four Major Bitcoin Bear Markets (2014–2025)
1. 2014–2015 Bear Market (−86%)
- BTC Peak: $1,163 (Dec 4, 2013) → Trough: $177 (Jan 14, 2015)
- Duration: 407 days
- Gold price on BTC peak: $1,201
- Gold price on BTC trough: $1,283
- Gold return: +6.8%
- Outcome: Gold rose modestly while Bitcoin lost 85%.
2. 2018 Bear Market (−84%)
- BTC Peak: $19,666 (Dec 17, 2017) → Trough: $3,128 (Dec 15, 2018)
- Duration: 364 days
- Gold price on BTC peak: $1,257
- Gold price on BTC trough: $1,282
- Gold return: +2.0%
- Outcome: Gold was essentially flat (small gain).
3. 2022 Bear Market (−77%)
- BTC Peak: $69,044 (Nov 10, 2021) → Trough: $15,476 (Nov 21, 2022)
- Duration: 376 days
- Gold price on BTC peak: $1,868
- Gold price on BTC trough: $1,739
- Gold return: −6.9%
- Outcome: Gold fell significantly. This was the first major Bitcoin bear market that coincided with aggressive Fed tightening (real yields rose from −1% to +1.5%).
4. 2025 Bear Market (ongoing as of Nov 2025)
- BTC Peak: $108,268 (Jan 20, 2025) → Low so far: $52,700 (Nov 15, 2025)
- Current drawdown: −51% (not yet a “full” bear by −70% rule, but included because many are calling it one)
- Gold price on BTC peak: $2,670
- Gold price on Nov 26, 2025: $3,230
- Gold return so far: +21.0%
- Outcome: Gold has strongly outperformed Bitcoin during the 2025 sell-off.
Summary Table
| Bitcoin Bear Market | BTC Drawdown | Duration | Gold Return | Gold Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2015 | −86% | 407 days | +6.8% | Up |
| 2018 | −84% | 364 days | +2.0% | Flat/Up |
| 2022 | −77% | 376 days | −6.9% | Down |
| 2025 (ongoing) | −51% so far | 310 days | +21.0% | Strongly Up |
Key Takeaways
- The “rotation into gold” narrative is only consistently true when real yields are falling or stable.
- 2014–2015: real yields negative → gold up
- 2018: real yields near zero → gold flat/slightly up
- 2022: real yields surged → gold down (despite Bitcoin crash)
- 2025: real yields collapsed again (Fed pivot expectations + tariff war) → gold +21% while BTC −51%
- Gold and Bitcoin are NOT inversely correlated by default.
- Correlation 2014–2020: near zero
- Correlation 2021–2023: strongly positive (both “risk-on” macro assets)
- Correlation 2024–2025: turning negative again as Bitcoin behaves like a tech stock and gold reverts to safe-haven
- The dominant driver of gold during Bitcoin bear markets is the U.S. real yield, not capital fleeing crypto.
- When real yields fall → gold wins big (2014–15, 2025)
- When real yields rise → both can fall together (2022)
Conclusion for 2025–2026
As of November 2025, we are in the first Bitcoin bear market in a decade where gold is decisively outperforming. This is not because crypto refugees are buying gold; on-chain data shows most Bitcoin selling is going into USD stablecoins, not PAXG or Tether Gold.
Gold is rallying for the same reasons central banks are buying record amounts: collapsing real yields, de-dollarization fears, and geopolitical risk.
Bottom line: Bitcoin bear markets do not automatically lift gold. They only do when macro conditions favor hard money over duration assets. In 2025, those conditions are firmly in place.
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